Does blackjack card counting really work? Part 1
Comparison of different card counting systems?
I currently use hi-lo, but am looking to learn another method.
Page 172 of Norm Wattenberger's Modern Black available free at his website appears to be just what you are looking for.
I have posted a link, which may or may not be permissible and may be removed.
Just say no to 6:5 Blackjack, Continuous shuffle machines and Blackjack the Forum.
All are Negative expected value.
Can I ask a couple questions pertaining to your consideration to switch counts?
What kind of games do you most often play?
What kind of improvement are you thinking you might realize?
I ask this because in my opinion, Hi-lo is more than adequate for the vast majority of players and that includes professional players such as myself.
As a matter of fact most professional or serious players that I know, use hi-lo and of casino war odds that do use a so called 'higher' level count, many are older, long-term players, who are using a count they learned a longtime ago, when their may have been more benefit from using such a count.
One famous author of a well know book that "attacks' Blackjack lol has stated that while he still plays level 2, Revere Point Count, which he learned decades ago and still plays like 150 index plays, becaue best counting system blackjack learned them, he can't "un-learn" them, IF HE WAS STARTING OUT TODAY, he would play hi-lo and learn and play far few index plays.
That's the kind of statement that speaks volumes, IMO.
In today's world, with worse conditions, any such benefit of a so called higher level count, really shrinks to almost nothing.
I believe you are better off keeping things simple, with hi-lo or another level one count, and ESPECIALLY if you already know and play such a count.
There just is minimal if any benefit to switching.
Just say no to 6:5 Blackjack, Continuous shuffle machines and Blackjack the Forum.
All are Negative expected value.
Thanks for the replies kewlj.
The wild swings possible in the game make me pretty nervous hence the spreads erroring on the conservative side.
I'm hoping one way to smooth out the fluctuations is best counting system blackjack using a more accurate counting method.
Quote: harikarilord Thanks for the replies kewlj.
The wild swings possible in the game make me pretty nervous hence the spreads erroring on the conservative side.
I'm hoping one way to smooth out the fluctuations is by using a more accurate counting method.
Your counting method might net you some more "change" per hour, but the variance you're going to inevitably see in the game doesn't care about your counting method.
Notice these have absolutely nothing to do with your counting system but more your spread affecting your AvgBetwhich inevitably needs to be a certain amount to be profitable, regardless of the system you use.
If you're thinking about switching to lessen the fluctuations, I wouldn't switch.
Quote: Romes If you're thinking about switching to lessen the fluctuations, I wouldn't switch.
This is a hugely polarizing topic, with knowledgeable and successful players deeply dug in on both sides of the debate.
I am a proponent of simplicity as I honestly believe Hi-lo or K-O or another similar level one count not A-5 or speed count is more than adequate for 99% of players, including players that play professionally, like myself most professional players and teams that I know or know of use hi-lo.
But in reality, it is not so much that I am a proponent of hi-lo, which has served me well, it is more that I am an opponent of the false and misleading information out there, influencing players to switch counts in search of unrealistic expectations and gains in profit or reduction in variance and swings.
Claims made by proponents of higher level counts are just not realistic and often they will go as far as to cherry pick data and use flawed simulations to exaggerate their points.
Just yesterday on another site, one of the proponent guys used a sim, to compare two different counts, or in this case it was actually a variation of a single count, Hi-lo vs hi-lo lite hi-lo lite is fewer and rounded index plays.
Honest simulations show the difference in these approaches to be negligible.
A difference of pennies.
But this guy's simulation showed a difference of 15%, which would be significant.
He then revealed that he used different betting ramps, betting more money at the same advantage click at this page the position that he wanted to show in a favorable lite than the other position.
Give me a break!
That's apples to oranges, in no way a fair comparison.
Another commonly used tactic by the proponents of higher level counts is refusing to acknowledge the existence of higher error rates with higher level counts, involving adding or subtracting 3 or 4 numbers as opposed to 2 numbers, or side counting additional numbers.
Scientific evidence confirms that the simpler the task the lower the error rate.
As a task grows more difficult, even slightly, the error rate increases.
These people not only refuse to accept this standard recognized fact, but counter with things like "with enough practice, I can play just as efficiently" or "more complex tasks keep their mind sharper".
Sounds great, but it's just not factually true.
If you are not going to account for some sort of higher error rate, which will reduce or eliminate any gain, you are not being honest as to real life expectations.
So, I am really a proponent of having accurate information for players, especially newer players to look at and not some cherry-picked data or information that will wrongly influence them.
At that point if they choose to play a higher level count, that's fine and dandy.
Just have reasonable expectations.
For most players doing so won't be beneficial and for almost all players that suggest best offline roulette game interesting know and play another count like hi-lo, of K-O efficiently, it will not be beneficial, as they will realize little if any difference in real world play.
Just say no to 6:5 Blackjack, Continuous shuffle machines and Blackjack the Forum.
All are Negative expected value.
Thanks again for the replies Romes and kewlj.
I want to poke at the question of standard deviations one more time.
I'm not an expert at the math, but intuitively I would think a level-two count system would help smooth out bankroll fluctuations.
Reasoning: with a level-two count system, your knowledge of the remaining deck composition is more nuanced.
Therefore, when the higher-count method tells you that you have an advantage, it's more likely to be accurate.
In other words, big-bet losses are less likely with a higher count system.
Which translates to less extreme fluctuations in your bankroll.
Is this reasoning sound?
In general, using a level 2 counting system is more accurate than a level 1 system but more error prone.
The advantage is approx.
You will need to size your bets accurately and ideally bet proportionally to your advantage to maximise your win rate.
For this to work you will need to select the right game, calculate your bankroll requirements so you can survive the downswings and minimise your risk of ruin.
have best mobile slots bonus accept you are able to do all of this accurately, count error free and apply the relevant indices at the correct true count in a casino environment then in theory you should enjoy a slight advantage over a level 1 system in the long run.
Not sure what kewlj wrote, but I agree with whatever it see more that he did write.
He's https://chicago-lawyer.info/best/microgaming-best-casinos.html actually no, he IS definitely the go-to guy around here when it comes to card counting in BJ.
Here's a comparison chart of different counts: Hopefully my post won't be too long, but chances are, it will be long.
You'll probably also want to side count Aces along with it.
For me, Best counting system blackjack don't know if that's worth it mostly because I don't play much BJ anymore.
If you play shoe games, you're almost certainly going to want to stay with HiLo.
Lots of players look for "better systems" to win more money.
Instead, and it depends on your circumstances, you'll be far better off: -Joining a team that plays HiLo any team I've ever heard of, uses HiLo -Learning to back-count multiple tables -Count the table you're playing obviously and count more info table beside your table.
Each of those depend on your environment.
Are you looking to take BJ more seriously, or do you play every now and then?
Are you interested in joining a team?
What kind of a network do you have with other APs?
Being able to back-count two tables doesn't help you if you're playing single deck games.
Or perhaps you play a mixture of shoe games as well as pitch games.
I used to play both, so I decided on switching to an "easy" level-2 count Zen.
It's easy enough and not so convoluted for shoe games, while maintaining good strength for pitch games.
Remember when you first starting learning BJ, learning how to count HiLo, learning basic strategy, the index plays, true count conversion, etc.?
Well, it's similar when you move up to a different count ESPECIALLY if you're trying to side-count aces for ex.
Being able to count 2 tables at once with HiLo is significantly better than playing one table with some advanced counting system.
You'll be getting much more of those juicy +TC counts where you make your money.
So what if you miss a card or 2 on the other table every now and then.
Those ultra-fancy counts look cool on paper, but don't delude yourself into thinking you're going to be unstoppable, everything's roulette free the system best to turn around, you'll be a winner every session or even more frequently.
IMO: Check out some different counts, read about them and figure out what they're good at and worse at.
But don't start learning anything new.
The link I posted has some good stuff.
Also read into side-counting aces, probablyand the benefit it provides it's usually something like.
But ALSO try counting 2 separate decks at once and see if you can handle it.
Obviously don't go super fast, go super slow if anything.
It doesn't take much practice to get a decent grasp on how to do it.
Then go to the casino, and give it a shot.
Don't need to do it seriously or have any intentions on wonging in to either game.
The shoes don't need to be fresh and new, just try it mid-shoe FOR PRACTICE.
Remember, it's common enough for one to go positive and the other to go negative, and once the negative one goes negative-enough, you can abandon counting that table.
Good luck, and don't make a decision too soon.
EDIT: Another benefit of a simpler count is.
You don't have to concentrate on every card, adding or subtracting larger numbers at a time, etc.
Not that I'm saying to use HiLo because it's easier.
You can talk to other players, chat with the dealer, take notice of what is going on in the pit boss going to phone, floor people huddling up, supervisors taking notice of you, a team of security guards and shift supervisor approaching your table, etc.
I want to poke at the question of standard deviations one more time.
I'm not an expert at the math, but intuitively I would think a level-two count system would help smooth out bankroll fluctuations.
Reasoning: with a level-two count system, your knowledge of the remaining deck composition is more nuanced.
Therefore, when the higher-count method tells you that you have an advantage, it's more likely to be accurate.
In other words, big-bet losses are less likely with a higher count system.
Which translates to less extreme fluctuations in your bankroll.
Is this click at this page sound?
Your main issue is you think as the count gets higher you're "more likely to win".
The dealer hand is just as likely to get blackjack as you.
Where you make your money in the game is you get paid extra for blackjacks, the dealer does not.
You can split and double to poor dealer cards, and in higher counts they will bust slightly more often.
This helps best amulet for luck get paid more, NOT win more frequently.
This is how you beat the game of blackjack.
I again hope you see in these equations where the only variable you COULD be best counting system blackjack with a different counting system is the AverageBet.
Your level 2 and level 3 count systems sound 10x more sophisticated.
I've done multiple counts, and they're quite similar all around.
Other than being more error prone with a higher count, they really only get you pennies on the dollar more.
Remember, just because you've "more accurately" deciphered you have an advantage doesn't mean you're more likely to win the hand.
Blackjack Expert Explains How Card Counting Works
Card Counting doesn't have to be for experienced players, here, we recommend 3 card counting systems that are perfect for new blackjack ...
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